Bayesian Methods for Hackers

Bayesian Methods for Hackers free pdf

Book Description:

Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power.

Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.

Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.

Table of Contents

Prologue: Why we do it.

Chapter 1: Introduction to Bayesian Methods Introduction to the philosophy and practice of Bayesian methods and answering the question, “What is probabilistic programming?”

Chapter 2: A little more on PyMC We explore modeling Bayesian problems using Python’s PyMC library through examples. How do we create Bayesian models?

Chapter 3: Opening the Black Box of MCMC We discuss how MCMC, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, operates and diagnostic tools.

Chapter 4: The Greatest Theorem Never Told We explore an incredibly useful, and dangerous, theorem: The Law of Large Numbers.

Chapter 5: Would you rather lose an arm or a leg? The introduction of loss functions and their (awesome) use in Bayesian methods.

Chapter 6: Getting our prior-ities straight Probably the most important chapter. We examine our prior choices and draw on expert opinions craft priors.

Chapter X1: Bayesian methods in Machine Learning and Model Validation We explore how to resolve the overfitting problem plus popular ML methods.

Chapter X2: More PyMC Hackery We explore the gritty details of PyMC.

 

Coverage includes

• Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications
• Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference
• Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses
• Building and debugging models with PyMC
• Testing your model’s “goodness of fit”
• Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works
• Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers”
• Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning
• Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes
• Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size
• Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough
• Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing
• Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available

 

Bayesian Methods for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference

Author(s): Cameron Davidson-Pilon

Publisher: Addison-Wesley Professional, Year: 2015

ISBN: 0133902838


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